What a GREAT day it was for my account! New highs, and new record close. I’m still bullish, but with caution.
A couple good things to note from today. 1) Volume was kind of weak until the end. It wasn’t horrible, but it wasn’t great either. It did pick up and ended up closing with about average volume. That’s a good thing. Low volume plus the record close would maybe be a bad thing. 2) The RSI divergence I wrote about yesterday is pretty much gone now after today. That is also a good thing.
Now, a couple of bad things to note from today. 1) The market is just one negative tweet, or one negative trade war news story from sending it down. That is enough to make me proceed with caution. I am still bullish, of course, but I’m cautiously bullish. 2) Jerome Powell (the Fed) speaks on Wednesday afternoon. He has moved the markets before, and he could move the markets again. If the market is looking for a 50 BP cut, and we only get a 25 BP cut, that could be bad. Or, even worse, if there is no cut at all that would be VERY bad for the markets. Everyone wants a cut, regardless if it’s a good thing or not.
Keep your eyes peeled and stay vigilant. Being at these all-time highs, a lot could go wrong. But, a lot could go good also. We will just have to wait and see what the near-term future holds for us.
My guess… and this is just MY guess alone… is that we move up and play in the $315 to $325 area for SPY. If negative news comes out, or if Jerome Powell dissapoints, forget about it! We would then probably fall well back into the $290’s.
Good luck to all, and may we all profit!